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A FUZZY TIME SERIES-MARKOV CHAIN MODEL TO FORECAST FISH FARMING PRODUCT

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Bagus Dwi Saputra

Abstract

Price is one of the important things that need to concern as defining factor of the profit or loss of product selling as the result of price fluctuations that are very difficult to control. Price fluctuations are caused by many factors including weather, stock availability, demand and others. One of the steps to solve the price fluctuations problem is by making a forecast of fish incoming prices. The purpose of this study is to apply Markov chain’s fuzzy time series to forecast farming fish prices. Markov chain fuzzy time series is one of the prediction methods to predict time series data that has advantages in the implentation of historical data, flexible, and high level of data forecasting accuracy. This study used fish prices at November 2018. The results showed that markov chain fuzzy time series showed very accurate forecasting results with a mean error percentage of absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.4% so the accuracy of the Markov chain fuzzy time series method is 98, 6%.

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SAPUTRA, Bagus Dwi. A FUZZY TIME SERIES-MARKOV CHAIN MODEL TO FORECAST FISH FARMING PRODUCT. Jurnal Ilmiah Kursor, [S.l.], v. 9, n. 4, sep. 2019. ISSN 2301-6914. Available at: <https://kursorjournal.org/index.php/kursor/article/view/167>. Date accessed: 22 nov. 2019. doi: https://doi.org/10.28961/kursor.v9i4.167.
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